How the 2024 Republican and Democratic National Conventions are shaping hotel and short-term rental prices in Milwaukee and Chicago

This US election season, the two main parties’ National Conventions will put up a former versus current president in two neighboring cities just one month apart. With the two squaring off in nearly every way imaginable, the decision to have the National Conventions just 90 miles apart in Milwaukee and Chicago is no coincidence.

However, the similarities end there. Our research shows stark differences in how these events affect the local hospitality markets.

Using the industry’s most extensive set of hospitality data, we have found that these are two very distinct events, each with their own characteristics.

Conventions boost business for host city hoteliers

The significance of National Conventions has shifted from critical political meetings to largely extended rallies.

However, they remain cornerstones of the US political scene and a key platform to promote candidates and their policies in the run-up to November, marking the most important period in the campaign season.

Alongside several thousand state delegates, a legion of party affiliates, media members, activists, lobbyists and more descend, making these noticeable demand drivers for local hospitality markets. Which is why multiple cities bid to host them.

Forward indicators for the Republican National Convention (RNC), which is being held on July 15-18th at the Fiserv Forum, and the Democratic National Convention (DNC), situated at the United Center this August 19-22nd.

Our market demand indicator, which compiles various measures like searches and available hotels, shows that both events are the high point of future demand in the next 150 days. However, the magnitude of difference between Chicago and Milwaukee is considerable.

At its peak, interest in local accommodation is nearly six times the annual average during the RNC, and nearly three times as much as during the prior weekends for Summerfest, a major Wisconsin festival held in late June and early July that also brings in a large number of bookings to the Milwaukee area.

In comparison, demand in Chicago peaks at a little over 1.8 times the average level of the next 365 days. This is still significant and the highest point in the sample, but not nearly on the same scale as the RNC.

Hotel room pricing picks up in Chicago but forms an unusual pattern in Milwaukee

With that massive spike, we would expect hotel prices to be soaring to extremes in Milwaukee when the RNC is being held.

Instead, we are seeing quite an unusual pattern for this kind of demand injection, especially when compared to the DNC.

In Chicago, standard hotel room prices rise in line with the event, peaking at $350 on August 22nd.

The final day typically features the most important speeches and is something of a finale for a National Convention, drawing the most media attention and political interest, driving up stays.

In contrast, Milwaukee, sees the highest prices on either side of the RNC dates, with advertised prices sitting at a comparable $349 at the time of writing for July 13th, but dropping back during the event, when prices peak at $291, before then climbing up again to $319 on July 19th, after the convention has concluded.

During the Republican National Convention, nearly all hotel inventory in Milwaukee is booked, with 96% of hotels listed as unavailable on three of the four days. This is in stark contrast to 56% on July 13th and 38% on July 19th.

In comparison, 39% of hotels are listed as unavailable at the peak point of the DNC in Chicago, with a similar percentage also reported for on-the-books occupancy.

These numbers highlight the atypical market behavior during the RNC and DNC, underscoring the divergence between the two events.

An unconventional convention spurs a boom in short-term rental accommodation in Milwaukee

The stark differences extend to short-term rentals, with drastically different pricing and booking patterns emerging.

While alternative accommodation in Chicago is seeing little pricing increase during the Convention, short-term rentals in Milwaukee are massively elevated.

Compared to the average price in the sample, rates for the RNC are 118% higher, peaking at $401 on the Saturday immediately after the Convention.

Prices in Chicago meanwhile see a modest increase, rising up 19% compared to the same days a week prior, and 17% compared to the following week, but there is little to no spillover effect as there is in Milwaukee.

Limited inventory creates diverging hotel pricing strategies

A significant driver of this divergence likely lies in the different inventory available in each location and the bookings undertaken by each party.

Firstly, Milwaukee is simply a much smaller market than Chicago in terms of both hotel and short-term rental inventory.

Our data for short-term rental properties illustrates this starkly. While listings in Chicago were just north of 12,000 as of the last available data, Milwaukee has just 2,000.

It is a similar story when it comes to hotel rooms, but even more acute.

While Chicago’s official tourism website says that there are “43,881 hotel rooms in the Central Business District” alone, Visit Milwaukee reported that there are 19,831 rooms in the whole of the Greater Milwaukee Area.

The difference is even more severe close to the convention center, where rooms are at a premium, with just 3,713 rooms listed within a half-mile radius of Milwaukee’s convention center.

This shortage pushes more demand into alternative accommodations, driving up prices.

However, it doesn’t explain what is happening during the event itself and the difference in the two cities’ hotel markets.

Milwaukee hotels should be sky high in terms of rates given this limited pool, so what is behind the anomaly?

It’s likely that Republican planners made large amounts of early bookings and took up much of the inventory far in advance, leaving little-to-no premium accommodation situated centrally to book up at this stage.

As noted above, almost all inventory in the city is now unavailable, which would support this point and the difference in availability and occupancy rates in Chicago also supports this.

While Milwaukee has been set as the site of the RNC since July 2022, Chicago was announced in April 2023, giving planners in the former more time to make group and block bookings. What little hotel inventory does remain available is likely not well situated for the RNC.

The respective attendee populations may also play a role. More enthusiastic and engaged supporters are likely to book further in advance of the event and stay beyond the dates of the conference itself.

The squeezed inventory position for the RNC is also affecting how prices are now developing.

While Chicago still has plenty of rooms available, Milwaukee does not, and so the rate evolution between the two, has diverged over the last 90 days.

Summary

While hotel and short-term rental rates have surged by double digits during the days of the RNC compared to 90 days ago, Chicago prices are subdued. There is not a single day during the event or its surrounding two days before or after where rates for hotels or alternative accommodation are above where they were 90 days before.

Once again, this is largely tied to the inventory positions in the respective locations with remaining demand chasing vanishingly little rooms in Milwaukee.

This divergence in pricing patterns for two comparable events in neighboring cities highlights the need for real-time market intelligence.

Let us handle the heavy lifting with our tailored and automated dashboards that can link to your properties for a micro view and incorporate macro-level data.

Get in touch to see how Lighthouse can illuminate trends in your local market.